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The Arab Crisis
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The systemic crisis of the Arab World
The Arab world has been in a systemic crisis for the last 200 years. It missed out on the industrial revolution, it is missing out on the digital revolution. Lack of inner resources to cope with modern world
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Shattered Arab self-esteem
Shattered self-esteem : Could God be wrong?
Turn the rage against those who contradict God: the West, object of hatred. A whole generation of violently anti-Western, anti-American, anti-modern shock-troops
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What has the Arab world produced?
Since independence, wars have been the principal output of the Arab world
Demographic and economic problems made intractable by failure to establish stable polities aiming at prosperity. All Arab states are either failing states or threatened to fail
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The Crisis of the Arab world reaches a climax
The tension between the Arab world and the modern world has reached a climax. The Arab world's home-made problems overwhelm its ability to cope. The crisis is consequently being exported to the rest of the world
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How does change occur in the Arab world?
There is no agora, no public space for debating ideas, interests, policies. The tribal group in power blocks all avenues of change, represses all advocates of change. Plot, riot, murder, coup are the only available means to bring about political change
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The continuation of politics by other means?
In the Arab world, violence is not a continuation of politics by other means -- violence is politics, politics is violence. This culture of violence is the prime enabler of terrorism. Terror as an accepted, legitimate means of carrying out politics, has been incubated for 30 years ...
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The crisis cannot be contained to the Arab world alone
The crisis has irreversibly spilled out of the region. 9/11 was a symptom of the "overflow"
The paroxysm is liable to last for several decades. U.S. response will decisively influence the duration and outcome
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"Saudi" Arabia
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The old partnership
Once upon a time, there was a partnership between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. Partnerships, like alliances, are embodied in practices, ideas, policies, institutions, people -- which persist after the alliance has died
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"Saudi" Arabia
An instable group: Since 1745, 58% of all rulers of the House of Saud have met a violent demise . Wahhabism loathes modernity, capitalism, human rights, religious freedom, democracy, republics, an open society -- and practices the very opposite. As long as enmity had no or little consequences outside the kingdom, the bargain between the House of Saud and the U.S. held.
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Means, motive, opportunity
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1973: Saudi Arabia unleashes the Oil Shock, absorbs immense flows of resources -- means.
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1978: Khomeiny challenges the Saudis' Islamic credentials, provoking a radicalization and world-wide spread of Wahhabism in response -- motive.
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1979-1989: the anti-Soviet Jihad gives life and strength to the Wahhabi putsch within Sunni Islam -- opportunity. The Taliban are the result.
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The impact on Saudi policy
Wahhabism moves from Islam's lunatic fringe to center-stage -- its mission now extends world-wide. Saudis launch a putsch within Sunni Islam. Shift from pragmatic oil policy to promotion of radical Islam. Establish Saudi as "the indispensable State" -- treasurers of radical, fundamentalist, terrorist groups
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Saudis see themselves
God placed the oil in the kingdom as a sign of divine approval. Spread Wahhabism everywhere, but keep the power of the al-Saud undiminished. Survive by creating a Wahhabi-friendly environment -- fundamentalist regimes -- throughout the Moslem world and beyond
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The House of Saud today
Saudi Arabia is central to the self-destruction of the Arab world and the chief vector of the Arab crisis and its outwardly-directed aggression. The Saudis are active at every level of the terror chain, from planners to financiers, from cadre to foot-soldier, from ideologist to cheerleader. Saudi Arabia supports our enemies and attacks our allies. A daily outpouring of virulent hatred against the U.S. from Saudi media, "educational" institutions, clerics, officials -- Saudis tell us one thing in private, do the contrary in reality.
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Strategies
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What is to be done?
During and after World War I, Britain's India Office backed the House of Saud; the Foreign Office backed the Hashemites. The India Office won. But the entire post-1917 Middle East settlement designed by the British to replace the Ottoman Empire is fraying. The role assigned to the House of Saud in that arrangement has become obsolete -- and nefarious
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"Saudi Arabia" is not a God-given entity
The House of Saud was given dominion over Arabia in 1922 by the British. It wrested the Guardianship of the Holy Places -- Mecca and Medina -- from the Hashemite dynasty. There is an "Arabia," but it needs not be "Saudi"
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An ultimatum to the House of Saud
Stop any funding and support for any fundamentalist madrasa, mosque, ulama, predicator anywhere in the world. Stop all anti-U.S., anti-Israeli, anti-Western predication, writings, etc., within Arabia. Dismantle, ban all the kingdom's "Islamic charities," confiscate their assets. Prosecute or isolate those involved in the terror chain, including in the Saudi intelligence services
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Or else ...
What the House of Saud holds dear can be targeted:
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Oil: the old fields are defended by U.S. forces, and located in a mostly Shiite area
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Money: the Kingdom is in dire financial straits, its valuable assets invested in dollars, largely in the U.S.
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The Holy Places: let it be known that alternatives are being canvassed
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Other Arabs?
The Saudis are hated throughout the Arab world: lazy, overbearing, dishonest, corrupt. If truly moderate regimes arise, the Wahhabi-Saudi nexus is pushed back into its extremist corner. The Hashemites have greater legitimacy as Guardians of Mecca and Medina
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Grand strategy for the Middle East
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